Modelling the Potential Health Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on a Hypothetical European Country
Wilson, N.; Telfar Barnard, L.; Kvalsig, A.; Verrall, A.; Baker, M. G.; Schwehm, M.
Show abstract
A SEIR simulation model for the COVID-19 pandemic was developed (http://covidsim.eu) and applied to a hypothetical European country of 10 million population. Our results show which interventions potentially push the epidemic peak into the subsequent year (when vaccinations may be available) or which fail. Different levels of control (via contact reduction) resulted in 22% to 63% of the population sick, 0.2% to 0.6% hospitalised, and 0.07% to 0.28% dead (n=6,450 to 28,228).
Matching journals
The top 8 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- Evaluating the effects of vaccine rollout policies in European countries: A simulation study 95%
- Regular testing of asymptomatic healthcare workers identifies cost-efficient SARS-CoV-2 preventive measures 95%
- Modeling non-pharmaceutical interventions in the COVID-19 pandemic with survey-based simulations 95%
Similar papers in this journal
- Uncertainty and Inconsistency of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention Effects with Multiple Competitive Statistical Models 96%
- Strategies for COVID-19 vaccination under a shortage scenario: a geo-stochastic modelling approach 94%
- Interpreting epidemiological surveillance data: A modelling study from Pune City 94%
Similar papers in this journal
- The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19: an individual-based modelling study 95%
- Estimating the effect of social inequalities in the mitigation of COVID-19 across communities in Santiago de Chile 94%
- Return to normal: COVID-19 vaccination under mitigation measures 93%
Similar papers in this journal
- SARS-CoV-2 infection risk during delivery of childhood vaccination campaigns: a modelling study 94%
- An assessment of the vaccination of school-aged children in England 94%
- Evaluating the COVID-19 responses of Belgium, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom, February-June 2020: A counterfactual modelling study 93%
Similar papers in this journal
- Retrospective analysis of SARS-CoV-2 omicron invasion over delta in French regions in 2021-22: a status-based multi-variant model 93%
- A data-driven metapopulation model for the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic: assessing the impact of lockdown and exit strategies 93%
- Regional opening strategies with commuter testing and containment of new SARS-CoV-2 variants 93%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.