Assessing the potential impacts of COVID-19 in Brasil: Mobility, Morbidity and Impact to the Health System
Coelho, F. C.; Lana, R. M.; Cruz, O. G.; Codeco, C. T.; Villela, D.; Bastos, L. S.; Piontti, A. P. y.; Davis, J. T.; Vespignani, A.; Gomes, M. F. C.
Show abstract
BackgroundBrazil detected community transmission of COVID-19 on March 13, 2020. In this study we identify which areas in the country are most vulnerable for COVID-19, both in terms of the risk of arrival of COVID-19 cases and the risk of sustained transmission. The micro-regions with higher social vulnerability are also identified. MethodsProbabilistic models were used to calculate the probability of COVID-19 spread from Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, according to previous data available on human mobility in Brazil. We also perform a multivariate cluster analysis of socio-economic indices to identify areas with similar social vulnerability. ResultsThe results consist of a series of maps of effective distance, outbreak probability, hospital capacity and social vulnerability. They show areas in the North and Northeast with high risk of COVID-19 outbreak that are also highly vulnerable. InterpretationThe maps produced are useful for authorities in their efforts to prioritize actions such as resource allocation to mitigate the effects of the pandemic and may help other countries to use a similar approach to predict the virus route in their countries as well. FundingNo funding
Matching journals
The top 9 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- Network vulnerability of cattle movement in Minas Gerais, Brazil, from 2013 to 2022 96%
- Epidemiological behavior of the contamination curve by COVID-19 in Brazil: a time series study 96%
- Potential dissemination of epidemics based on Brazilian mobile geolocation data. Part I: Population dynamics and future spreading of infection in the states of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro during the pandemic of COVID-19. 95%
Similar papers in this journal
- How super-spreader cities, highways, hospital bed availability, and dengue fever influenced the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil 95%
- Young adults vulnerability to COVID-19 in Brazil: an overview across the country 94%
- A multipurpose machine learning approach to predict COVID-19 negative prognosis in Sao Paulo, Brazil 92%
Similar papers in this journal
- Using A Socio-Ecological System (SES) Framework to Explain Factors Influencing Countries’ Success Level in Curbing COVID-19 92%
- Temporal Geospatial Analysis of COVID-19 Pre-infection Determinants of Risk in South Carolina 91%
- How the COVID-19 pandemic is shaping research in Africa: inequalities in scholarly output and collaborations and new opportunities for scientific leadership 91%
Similar papers in this journal
- The Changing Landscape: Geospatial, Epidemiologic Characteristics and Infectious Diseases of Inmates Living in a Region with a High Number of Prisons, Brazil 95%
- Cohort Study Protocol of the Brazilian Collaborative Research Network on COVID-19: strengthening WHO global data 94%
- Reopening Italy’s Schools in September 2020: A Bayesian Estimation of the Change in the Growth Rate of New SARS-CoV-2 Cases 93%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.