Modelling the epidemic 2019-nCoV event in Italy: a preliminary note
Traini, M. C.; Caponi, C.; De Socio, G. V.
Show abstract
An analysis of the time evolution of the 2019-nCoV outbreak event in Italy is proposed and is based on the preliminary data at disposal (till March 11th, 2020) on one side, and on an epidemiological model recently used to describe the same epidemic event in the Wuhan region (February 2020) on the other side. The equations of the model include the description of compartments like Susceptible (S), exposed (E), infectious but not yet symptomatic (pre-symptomatic) (A), infectious with symptoms (I), hospitalized (H) and recovered (R). Further stratification includes quarantined susceptible (Sq), isolated exposed (Eq) and isolated infected (Iq) compartments. The equations are numerically solved for boundary (initial) conditions tuned on the Italian event. The role of quarantine is specifically emphasized and supports the strategies adopted providing a numerical description of the effects.
Matching journals
The top 7 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- Modeling the initial phase of COVID-19 epidemic: The role of age and disease severity in the Basque Country, Spain 96%
- Adding a reaction-restoration type transmission rate dynamic law to the basic SEIR COVID-19 model 96%
- Impact of exposure frequency on disease burden of the common cold - a mathematical modeling perspective 96%
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
- An improved mathematical prediction of the time evolution of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Italy, with Monte Carlo simulations and error analyses 96%
- Prediction of the time evolution of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Italy by a Gauss Error Function and Monte Carlo simulations 95%
- A novel deterministic forecast model for the Covid-19 epidemic based on a single ordinary integro-differential equation 94%
Similar papers in this journal
- Contribution to COVID-19 spread modelling: A physical phenomenological dissipative formalism 94%
- In silico analysis of the invasion mechanics and invasiveness of the plasmodium falciparum merozoite 93%
- Modeling cardiac microcirculation for the simulation of coronary flow and 3D myocardial perfusion 93%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.