Back

Modelling the epidemic trend of the 2019-nCOV outbreak in Hubei Province, China

Ai, L.

2020-02-02 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.01.30.20019828 medRxiv
Show abstract

As of 8am 30th January (Beijing Time) 2020, Approximate 8000 cases across the world have been confirmed. Its necessary to simulate epidemic trend of the 2019-nCOV outbreak in Hubei Province, the hardest-hit area. By SEIR simulation, the predicted epidemic peak in Hubei will be within 28th January 2020 to 7th February 2020, up to 7000-9000 infectious cases in total. The estimate above was based on some assumptions and limitations exited.

Matching journals

The top 5 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
PLOS ONE
● 5266 papers in training set
Top 5%
27.2%
Similar papers in this journal
2
Frontiers in Public Health
○ 148 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
8.1%
Similar papers in this journal
3
Infectious Disease Modelling
○ 54 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
6.4%
Similar papers in this journal
4
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
○ 128 papers in training set
Top 0.9%
5.0%
Similar papers in this journal
5
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
● 23 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
5.0%
Similar papers in this journal
50% of probability mass above
6
Scientific Reports
○ 3612 papers in training set
Top 33%
3.2%
7
Infectious Diseases of Poverty
○ 11 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
2.5%
8
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals
○ 32 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
2.4%
9
Quantitative Biology
○ 12 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
2.4%
10
JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
◐ 45 papers in training set
Top 0.6%
1.7%
11
International Journal of Infectious Diseases
○ 129 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.5%
12
PeerJ
◐ 308 papers in training set
Top 6%
1.5%
13
PLOS Computational Biology
● 1863 papers in training set
Top 15%
1.5%
14
Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics
○ 11 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
1.1%
15
Journal of Medical Virology
○ 140 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.1%
16
BioMed Research International
○ 28 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.1%
17
JMIRx Med
◐ 32 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.0%
18
Frontiers in Medicine
○ 120 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.0%
19
Epidemiology and Infection
◐ 89 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.9%
20
BMC Public Health
○ 158 papers in training set
Top 5%
0.9%
21
Annals of Translational Medicine
○ 18 papers in training set
Top 0.5%
0.9%
22
Epidemics
○ 116 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.6%
23
BMC Medicine
○ 176 papers in training set
Top 5%
0.6%
24
BMC Infectious Diseases
○ 133 papers in training set
Top 4%
0.6%
25
Science China Life Sciences
○ 29 papers in training set
Top 0.7%
0.6%
26
Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness
◐ 16 papers in training set
Top 0.7%
0.6%
27
Journal of Clinical Medicine
○ 97 papers in training set
Top 5%
0.6%

"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.