Global Change Biology

Empirical studies worldwide show substantial variability in plant litter decomposition responses to warming, leaving the overall impact of climate change on this process uncertain. We conducted a meta-analysis of 109 experimental warming studies across seven continents, utilizing natural and standardized plant material, to assess the overarching effect of warming on decomposition and identify potential moderating factors. Warming influences decomposition differently across macro-environmental gradients of moisture and temperature. Negative warming effects on decomposition in warmer, low-moisture areas were counterbalanced by the positive, though not significant, warming effects in colder areas, resulting in an overall non-significant effect. We determine that at least 5.2 degrees of warming is required for a significant increase in decomposition. This is particularly relevant given the past decades global warmth in higher latitudes, holding a significant proportion of terrestrial carbon. Low-quality plant litter was more sensitive to warming. Therefore, future vegetation changes toward low-quality, temperature-sensitive plants could increase carbon release and reduce the net supply of stored organic matter in the soil by increasing the decomposition of low-quality litter with warming. Our findings emphasize the connection between warming responses, macro-environment, and litter characteristics, refining predictions of climate changes consequences on key ecosystem processes and its contextual dependencies.

Climate change is a major driver of global biodiversity loss, and Europe is no exception with several areas exposed to high climate velocity and/or magnitude. Within the rapidly warming Europe, Italy is facing particularly high risk as part of the Mediterranean region with potentially dramatic consequences for its diverse habitat types. While species-level effects of climate risk are widely investigated, habitat-level exposure to climate change has rarely been assessed. This reduces the comprehensiveness of habitat state assessment under the Habitats Directive, and risks creating a blind spot on Protected Area effectiveness. Here we quantified the future (year 2050) climatic exposure of 139 EUNIS level-3 habitats across Italy, using two complementary metrics: analog velocity and multivariate magnitude. We found that median analog velocity was generally modest (median =0.15; Std = 0.41 km/y), and only a few habitats exceeded the critical velocity threshold of 0.5 km/yr. Instead, magnitude was typically high (median = 6.54; Std = 0.80) and 77% of habitat exceeded the critical threshold of 6.18. We also found a few habitats (2.15%) concurrently facing high velocity and high magnitude of climate change, mainly located in Apulia and Veneto. Mediterranean annual-rich dry grasslands and montane unvegetated inland shores were among the most exposed habitats (magnitudes {approx}7.1-7.3; velocities {approx}0.42-0.66 km/y), while cliff and mountain forest habitats in Sardinia and Sicily showed the lowest exposure. We urge countries to explicitly incorporate habitat-level exposure as part of national protection and restoration plans.

Marine heatwaves are transforming ecosystems, yet their role in driving alternative states--and the conditions that enable these transitions--remains poorly understood. Using 30 years of satellite and underwater data, we assessed the impact of the 2014-2016 Pacific marine heatwaves on giant kelp forests (Macrocystis pyrifera) at their warm range limit in Mexico. By 2016, 88% of forests were lost, with limited recovery by 2023, including an 80 km range contraction at the southern edge. Surveys revealed three alternative states: replacement by heat-tolerant palm kelp (Eisenia arborea) in warmer regions; urchin barrens due to predator overfishing; and, unexpectedly, persistent giant kelp near the southern limit where high temperatures coincide with low human pressure. Pre-existing conditions, such as high urchin and palm kelp densities, shaped these outcomes. These findings show that responses to marine heatwaves are shaped by local ecological and human contexts, requiring tailored climate-adaptation strategies to promote resilience.

Climate warming is increasing mismatches between thermal phenotypes and habitat temperatures, driving range shifts and population extirpations. While within-species variation in heat tolerance and local warming rates can predict responses to climate warming, how these factors shape differences in vulnerability among taxa and ecosystems is uncertain. Here we combine climate and thermal trait data from 69 species across four ecosystem types to examine the effects of incorporating intraspecific variation in heat tolerance and local warming rates on projected vulnerability to climate warming. Because vulnerability to warming depends on existing phenotypic variation in thermal performance and relative rates of habitat warming, we develop a new metric that integrates localized rates of warming with spatial variation in thermal tolerances, termed the minimum trait velocity. Incorporating intraspecific variation in heat tolerance lowered estimates of warming tolerance (a measure of vulnerability) across most ecosystem types, with the strongest negative impact on marine taxa. Although intraspecific variation in heat tolerance could facilitate adaptation to climate change, our results suggest such variation is generally less than the projected near future warming. This suggests that opportunities for evolutionary rescue via gene flow between locally adapted populations are limited, adding to mounting concern as the climate warms.

Soil carbon losses to the atmosphere through soil respiration are expected to rise with ongoing temperature increases, but available evidence from mesic biomes suggests that such response disappears after a few years of experimental warming. However, there is lack of empirical basis for these temporal dynamics in soil respiration responses, and of the mechanisms underlying them, in drylands, which collectively form the largest biome on Earth and store 32% of the global soil organic carbon pool. We coupled data from a ten-year warming experiment in a biocrust-dominated dryland ecosystem with laboratory incubations to confront 0-2 years (short-term hereafter) vs. 8-10 years (long-term hereafter) soil respiration responses to warming. Our results showed that increased soil respiration rates with short-term warming observed in areas with high biocrust cover returned to control levels in the long-term. Warming-induced increases in soil temperature were the main driver of the short-term soil respiration responses, whereas long-term soil respiration responses to warming were primarily driven by thermal acclimation and warming-induced reductions in biocrust cover. Our results highlight the importance of evaluating short and long-term soil respiration responses to warming as a mean to reduce the uncertainty in predicting the soil carbon - climate feedback in drylands.

Wetlands, spanning freshwater to saline ecosystems, are seasonally or permanently inundated and store over 30% of the worlds carbon within their soils. Ungulates can remove vegetation, disturb soils, and degrade habitats. Although site-level studies exist, broad evaluations of ungulate impacts on carbon stocks and greenhouse gas emissions remain scarce. We assessed how ungulate presence influences aboveground and soil carbon stocks and greenhouse gas emissions in wetlands. Aboveground carbon stocks declined from 36.9 to 3.70 Mg C per ha in the presence of ungulates. Soil carbon stocks were higher in the absence of ungulates (257 Mg C per ha) than in their presence (112 Mg C per ha). CO2 equivalent emissions were higher in the presence of non-native ungulates (38.4 Mg CO2 eq per ha per yr) than in the presence of native ungulates (27.2 Mg CO2 per ha per yr), and higher in freshwater wetlands of warm temperate dry regions when ungulates were present (27.2 Mg CO2 eq per ha per yr) compared to when ungulates were absent (13.2 Mg CO2 eq per ha per yr). Our findings emphasize the importance of expanding research across different climate regions and soil types to support the development of ungulate management strategies that maintain wetland carbon stocks and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The Arctic is warming rapidly, with winters warming up to seven times as fast as summers in some regions. Warm spells in winter lead to more frequent extreme rain-on-snow events that alter snowpack conditions and can encapsulate tundra vegetation in basal ice ( icing) for several months. However, tundra climate change studies have mainly focused on summer warming. Here, we investigate icing effects on vascular plant phenology, productivity, and reproduction in a pioneer field experiment in high Arctic Svalbard, simulating rain-on-snow and resultant icing in five consecutive winters, assessing vascular plant responses throughout each subsequent growing season. We also tested whether icing responses were modified by experimentally increased summer temperatures. Icing alone delayed early phenology of the dominant shrub, Salix polaris, but with evidence for a catch-up (through shortened developmental phases and increased community-level primary production) later in the growing season. This compensatory response occurred at the expense of delayed seed maturation and reduced community-level inflorescence production. Both the phenological delay and allocation trade-offs were associated with icing-induced lags in spring thawing and warming of the soil, crucial to regulating plant nutrient availability and acquisition. Experimental summer warming modified icing effects by advancing and accelerating plant phenology (leaf and seed development), thus increasing primary productivity already early in the growing season, and partially offsetting negative icing effects on reproduction. Thus, winter and summer warming must be considered simultaneously to predict tundra plant climate change responses. Our findings demonstrate that winter warm spells can shape high Arctic plant communities to a similar level as summer warming. However, the absence of accumulated effects over the years reveals an overall resistant community which contrasts with earlier studies documenting major die-off. As rain-on-snow events will be rule rather than exception in most Arctic regions, we call for similar experiments in coordinated circumpolar monitoring programmes across tundra plant communities.

Ocean warming (OW), driven by the influx of warm Atlantic water masses, and acidification (OA) are threatening Arctic marine ecosystems. However, their potential synergistic effects are poorly understood, especially during the Polar Night when marine species are particularly vulnerable to stressors. Here, we tested our novel Stressed Overwintering Bottleneck Hypothesis (SOBH): warming will disrupt the overwintering of the keystone pan-Arctic copepod Calanus glacialis, a pivotal secondary producer, by impairing fitness-related traits underpinning survival and reproduction. We exposed C. glacialis to current and projected future OW levels (0 {degrees}C and 4 {degrees}C) and OA levels (pH 8.0 and 7.4-7.3) for 53 days during the mid-Arctic Polar Night. We assessed survival, development, and physiological and molecular mechanisms (oxygen consumption, lipid depletion, the expression of nine targeted genes related to oxidative stress and damage repair, and DNA damage). OW alone did not affect C. glacialis mortality; however, OA increased copepod survival at 0 {degrees}C. Notably, their combined effects (OWA) synergistically doubled mortality, as predicted by SOBH. Warming also accelerated moulting from copepodite stage V to adulthood in December, and increased respiration, exhausted lipid reserves entirely by early March, approximately one to four months before the spring algal bloom, further supporting SOBH. DNA damage and gene expression patterns indicated low investment in maintenance and damage repair. Collectively, these findings reveal hidden mechanisms by which OW and OA synergistically threaten overwintering Calanus copepods by drastically increasing mortality, accelerating moulting, raising metabolic rates, and causing early lipid depletion. These effects generate cross-seasonal phenological mismatches among overwintering survival, energy reserves, reproduction, and primary production. Such stressed overwintering bottlenecks in foundational secondary producers like Calanus copepods provide novel explanations for how OW and OA can constrict Arctic marine food webs. At a broader perspective, SOBH highlights how multiple stressors induced overwintering disruption could reshape pan-Arctic and global biodiversity.

Climate change is having profound effects on biodiversity and species distributions worldwide. Nowhere are these effects potentially more pronounced than in the Arctic, where warming is almost two times the global average, and where year-round sea ice extent has significantly decreased, affecting many ice-dependent species. The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) is a circumpolar, apex Arctic predator, a sentinel of climate change, and a symbol of conservation. It is of immense cultural and spiritual importance to Inuit peoples and is hunted across the Arctic. Declines in sea ice have caused habitat fragmentation and loss, disrupting movement and prey access, potentially altering genetic structure and influencing polar bears potential to persist. Using samples collected from 1997 to 2020 by Inuit across much of the Canadian Arctic, 322 genome-wide autosomal DNA markers specifically designed to quantify polar bear genetic structure and a very stringent spatial-temporal method, we compare polar bear spatial genetic structure and landscape features between two periods across a consistent distribution:1997-2008 and 2009-2020. We observe marked changes in spatial genetic structure across the Arctic Archipelago over just two decades, shifting the boundaries between polar bear genetic clusters by [~]250 km. Landscape resistance models reveal the importance of sea ice and land cover type for each period, with spatial lag models showing that genetic change is best predicted by sea ice shifts between periods. Our study reveals rapid changes in genetic structure of polar bears in the Canadian Arctic, helps to inform conservation and management, and offers insight on future polar bear persistence across its immense, remote distribution.

The integrity of forest-based climate solutions and carbon credits requires persistent carbon storage, but climate change is increasing the risk of natural disturbances that release carbon back into the atmosphere. Using global satellite data, disturbance modeling, and machine learning, we provide the first spatially explicit and scenario-based maps of long-term probability of carbon loss in global forests under different disturbance severities and climate scenarios. We find that North American conifer forests, tropical rainforests, and Asian (sub)tropical dry forests face the greatest risks, and that Eurasian temperate forests, African (sub)tropical dry forests face the lowest. Globally, the likelihood of reversals over 100 years is 31%-42% across all scenarios. Our work helps to maximize the benefits of forest-based climate solutions by informing more strategic project placement and more robust reversal-risk compensation mechanisms, such as buffer pools, and highlights critical additional science to better understand and manage risks of these essential climate solutions. Plain Language SummaryForests can help slow and lessen climate impacts. However, in places this benefit is becoming less reliable as climate change increases natural disturbances such as wildfires, drought, storms, and insect outbreaks, which can release stored carbon back into the atmosphere. In this study, we created the first scenario-based global maps of risks and found that the risk of carbon loss is widespread and highly variable across regions, with especially high vulnerability in North American conifer forests, tropical rainforests, and Asian tropical and subtropical dry forests. Our study highlights the importance of considering disturbance risks when siting forest projects for climate mitigation, and developing protocols for carbon markets, such as in voluntary programs and under the UNFCCC Paris Agreement. Key PointsO_LIA demographic model framework estimates the reversal risk from natural disturbances over 100 years in global forests C_LIO_LISpatially explicit maps under different severity scenarios show variation in the integrated 100-year risk of carbon reversal C_LIO_LISpatially explicit maps estimate the required buffer pool needed to compensate for disturbance-driven reversals in global forests C_LI

Increasing temperatures and extreme heat episodes have become more common with climate change. While forests are known to be buffered from increasing temperatures compared to non-forested areas, whether this buffering is maintained under extreme temperature events, how such events influence forests, and how forest organisms respond to extreme heat is relatively unknown. Here we assess the effects of an extreme heat event (the Pacific Northwest (PNW) heatdome in June 2021) on forest microclimates, forests, and the organisms living within them. We first asked how the PNW heatdome affected microclimates in forests with differing canopy cover (including non-forests) and found that the buffering capacity of forests is greater under denser canopies, even under extreme heat events. We then combined this information with organismal temperature tolerance curves for 12 relevant species and found that canopy buffering can minimize the negative impacts of even extreme heat events on understory organisms, with greater canopy density providing greater microclimate moderation. Finally, we analyzed seasonal NDVI trends in recent years, and found signs of canopy stress following the extreme 2021 heat event. In all, this suggests that although forest canopies may buffer the negative effects of extreme heat events on understory organisms, a greater frequency of extreme heat events may threaten this capacity by damaging forest canopies.

Climate change and human activity are eroding tropical rainforest resilience, risking tipping points of mass forest dieback towards savannah-like or treeless states. Here, we extend a close analysis of tipping-point early-warning signals in satellite-sensed vegetation data from the Amazon to Borneo, revealing resilience loss via critical slowing down of recovery from perturbation. Specifically, we examine spatiotemporal patterns in rising lag-1 autocorrelation and variance to assess whether, when and where resilience loss accelerated, and how these patterns relate to climate, human activity and animal biodiversity. We find that Bornean rainforests lost resilience over 1991-2016, with a marked acceleration from a breakpoint in 2004. Resilience loss accelerated earlier in subregions with higher human footprint, and was more severe in drier, more human-impacted subregions before the breakpoint. Post-breakpoint, resilience loss was stronger in wetter and less biodiverse areas. We also uncover the apparent reallocation of post-breakpoint resilience loss to areas that had previously appeared more resistant. Climate and bird and mammal richness appear to be most strongly correlated with this pattern. Our results provide enhanced evidence of Bornean rainforest resilience loss and its potential drivers, underscoring the urgent need for ecological conservation and climate change mitigation in Borneo and worldwide.

Severe wildfire seasons in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) raise questions regarding long-term fire dynamics and their drivers. However, data on long-term fire history remains scarce across eastern Siberia. We present the first composite of reconstructed wildfire dynamics in Yakutia throughout the Holocene, based on eight newly contributed records of macroscopic charcoal in lake sediments in combination with published data. Increased biomass burning occurred in the Early Holocene, c. 10,000 years BP, before shifting to lower levels at c. 6000 years BP. Independent simulations of climate-driven burned area in an individual-based forest model reproduce this reconstructed Holocene trend (rs = 0.85), but the correlation on centennial timescales turns negative in the Late Holocene (rs = -0.70). This mismatch suggests that climate alone cannot explain Late Holocene wildfire dynamics. We propose that a human dimension needs to be considered. By example of the settlement of the pastoralist Sakha people c. 800 years BP, we show that implementing reduced fuel availability from Indigenous land management in the forest model leads to improved centennial-scale correlations (rs = 0.96). This study highlights the need for a better understanding of the poorly reported human dimension of past fire dynamics in eastern Siberia.

Under accelerating threats from climate change impacts, marine protected areas (MPAs) have been proposed as climate adaptation tools to enhance the resilience of marine ecosystems. Yet, debate persists as to whether and how MPAs may promote resilience to climate shocks. Here, we empirically assess whether a network of 85 temperate MPAs in coastal waters promotes resilience against marine heatwaves in Central and Southern California. We use 38 years of satellite-derived kelp cover to test whether MPAs enhance the resistance of kelp forest ecosystems to, and recovery from, the unprecedented 2014-2016 marine heatwave regime. We also leverage a 20-year time series of subtidal community surveys to understand whether protection and recovery of sea urchin predators within MPAs explain emergent patterns in kelp forest resilience through trophic cascades. We find that fully protected MPAs (i.e. no-take marine reserves) significantly enhance the resistance to and recovery of kelp forests to marine heatwaves in Southern California, but not in Central California. Differences in regional responses to the heatwaves may be partly explained by three-level trophic interactions comprising kelp, urchins, and predators of urchins. Urchin abundances in Southern California MPAs are significantly lower within fully protected MPAs during and after the heatwave, while the abundance of their predators are higher. In Central California, there is no significant difference in urchin abundances within protected areas as the current urchin predator, sea otters, are unilaterally protected. Therefore, we provide evidence that fully protected MPAs can be effective climate adaptation tools, but their ability to enhance resilience to extreme climate events depends upon region-specific environmental and ecological dynamics. As nations progress to protect 30% of the oceans by 2030 scientists and managers should consider whether protection will increase resilience to climate-change impacts given their local ecological contexts, and what additional measures may be needed.

Pulses of tree mortality have been reported for many ecosystems across the globe recently. Yet, large-scale trends in tree mortality remain poorly quantified. Manually analyzing more than 680,000 satellite image chips at 19,896 plot locations, we here show that forest canopy mortality in Europe has continuously increased since 1985 (+1.5 {+/-} 0.28 % yr-1), with the highest canopy mortality rate of the past 34 years observed in 2018 (1.14 {+/-} 0.16 %). Using simulations, we demonstrate that a continued increase in canopy mortality will strongly alter forest demography, with the median forest age falling below 30 years in more than 50% of Europes countries by 2050. These demographic changes can have substantial cascading effects on forest regeneration, biodiversity, and carbon storage. The current trend of increasing canopy mortality is thus challenging the future of Europes forests, and should be a key priority of forest policy and management.

AbstractMesopelagic fishes play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle through their diel vertical migration (DVM), but the impacts of neither natural nor anthropogenic climate change on DVM patterns are currently known. Studying the geological past can elucidate changes in DVM patterns under swelling climate pressure and allow estimating the impacts of the current climate crisis. We present a multi-proxy, ecosystem-level assessment of paleoenvironmental changes in the Eastern Mediterranean during the Middle Pleistocene (marine isotope stages MIS 23-18; 923-756 ka B.P.) and use the carbon and oxygen isotopic composition of fossil fish otoliths to assess the impacts of these changes on DVM and their possible implications on the biological pump. Temperature was the primary driver of ecosystem change during MIS 21 interglacial, whereas productivity became a dominant factor in MIS 19 interglacial. Responses of organisms throughout the water column varied. Our results indicate increased productivity across trophic levels during MIS 19, which affected foraminiferal biomasses, but did not inhibit fish DVM. In contrast, the early MIS 21 warming led to a reduction in DVM by mesopelagic fishes and consequently a drop in biological pump efficiency.

Future climate change may reshape ecological communities not only by increasing mean temperature, but also by altering the consequences of increasingly frequent heatwaves. Predicting these effects requires understanding how background warming interacts with short heatwaves in natural communities, where responses can arise through direct thermal stress and species interactions. We tested this using 32 outdoor freshwater mesocosms exposed to sustained near-future warming while capturing a documented natural heatwave. Warming raised temperature maxima that exceeded the thermal threshold of the pond snail, a main grazer in the community. Warmed communities showed lower grazer abundance, increased macrophyte and insect herbivore abundance, reduced phytoplankton biomass, and lower zooplankton density. Complementary assays showed that heatwave-level temperatures promoted macrophyte growth and reduced grazer survival, whereas reduced zooplankton performance mainly reflected indirect warming effects via food-web cascades. Thus, near-future warming can amplify natural heatwave impacts by exceeding consumer thermal thresholds and propagating through species interactions.

The magnitude and ecological impact of climate change varies with latitude. Several recent models have shown that tropical ectotherms face the greatest risk from warming because they currently experience temperatures much closer to their physiological optimum than temperate taxa. Even a small increase in temperature may thus result in steep fitness declines in tropical species but increased fitness in temperate species. This prediction, however, is based on a model that does not account for latitudinal differences in activity periods. Temperate species in particular may often experience considerably higher temperatures than expected during the active season. Here, we integrate data on insect warming tolerance and temperature-dependent development to re-evaluate latitudinal trends in thermal safety margins after accounting for latitudinal trends in insect seasonal activity. Our analyses suggest that temperate and tropical species differ far less in thermal safety margins than commonly assumed, and thus face a similar risk from warming.

Climate-smart conservation addresses the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change impacts but may require transboundary considerations. Here, we adapt and refine 16 biophysical guidelines for climate-smart marine reserves for the transboundary California Bight ecoregion. We link several climate-adaptation strategies (e.g., maintaining connectivity, representing climate refugia, and forecasting effectiveness of protection) by focusing on kelp forests and associated species. We quantify transboundary larval connectivity along [~]800 km of coast and find that the number of connections and the average density of larvae dispersing through the network under future climate scenarios could decrease by [~]50%, highlighting the need to protect critical steppingstone nodes. We also find that although focal species will generally recover with 30% protection, marine heatwaves could hinder subsequent recovery in the following 50 years, suggesting that protecting climate refugia and expanding the coverage of marine reserves is a priority. Together, these findings provide a first comprehensive framework for integrating climate resilience for networks of marine reserves and highlight the need for a coordinated approach in the California Bight ecoregion.

Tree mortality and partial canopy dieback are increasing in many forest ecosystems from unfavorable climate conditions. Examining how tree growth and mortality are affected by climate variability can help identify proximate causes of tree mortality and canopy dieback. We investigated anomalously high mortality rates and partial canopy dieback of western redcedar (Thuja plicata, WRC), a culturally, ecologically, and economically important species in the Pacific Northwest (USA), using tree-ring methods. We sampled trees in three tree status groups--no canopy dieback, partial canopy dieback, and trees that died (0-30 years ago)--from 11 sites in coastal (maritime climate) and interior (continental climate) populations of WRC trees. In our study, WRC tree mortality was portended by on average 4-5 years of declining radial growth. Warmer and drier climate conditions in May and June that extend the annual July-September dry season reduced radial growth in 9 of 11 sites (1975-2020). Defining drought events as warm, dry May-June climate, we found that WRC trees recovered radial growth to pre-drought rates within three years when post-drought climate conditions were average or cooler and wetter than average. However, radial growth recovery from drought was slower or absent when conditions were warmer and drier during the post-drought recovery period, which appeared to lead to the widespread mortality event across coastal populations. Annually resolved tree mortality in coastal populations predominately occurred in 2017-2018 (80% of sampled trees) and coincided with exceedingly hot temperatures and the longest regionally dry period for May to September (1970-2020). In interior populations, tree mortality was associated with warmer, drier conditions from August to September. Our findings forewarn that a warming climate and more frequent and severe seasonal droughts will likely increase the vulnerability of WRC to canopy dieback and mortality and possibly other drought-sensitive trees in one of the worlds largest carbon sinks.